Compliments of Coldwell Banker and Chris Mygatt we have our last weekly market watch of 2009. What a ride 2009 has been. It will be interesting to look back at this edition of Weekly Market Watch a year from now to see how things have changed. Will will be out of the woods then? Will these tough economic times be a thing of the past? All we can do is hope and continue to move forward, keep our heads held high and keep our eye on the prize.
There is a really good article in BusinessWeek last week and it had some very interesting images and graphics that I think help effectively tell the story of today’s market.
Following are excerpts from the BusinessWeek article entitled “A Housing Recovery Could Solidify.”
“Residential real estate prices have increased by about 5%, adjusted for inflation, since the end of the first quarter. As the inventory of existing homes for sale shrinks, a housing recovery could solidify. Sales have increased sharply in some of the hardest-hit states.
In Most of America, Home Prices Creep Up – A Lost Decade
Although home prices have been rising since March, after adjusting for inflation they are only at levels first reached in 2001.
Fewer New-Home Sales
Existing homes now make up about 93% of all sales, vs. a long-term historical average of about 85%.
Signs of Life in the Sunbelt—and Elsewhere
Four states—Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and California—have seen double-digit increases in sales volumes for existing homes since the end of 2008.”
So what does this mean and more importantly, the question of the day from so many of you is, what’s next? Well here’s what I think. While we probably are not out of the woods yet, housing is showing signs of stability, markets are showing signs of rational behavior and everyone is starting to understand the fundamental problems that brought us here. I think the combination of those have us on the right path. Are we going to suddenly see double digit appreciation in 2010? Probably not. But I think we are on a good, sustainable path that should give us some modest growth in the coming year, largely in the most sought after affordable and mid-level markets. In terms of the luxury market, I think only time will tell. It was the last to feel the downturn and in all likelihood it will be the last to recover. Knowing this, it is important to point out that there are always pockets that are the exception. Real estate is local and there are always going to be those sought after neighborhoods, those one-of-a-kind properties, that just demand something different. What I can assure you is that over the next year we’ll be watching the market closely and will keep you abreast of changes as they happen.
And with that said, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
- Boulder/Longmont—Longmont reported showings are happening and they are very unpredictable here. Most of the fourth quarter showings were of homes under $200,000. Not so much the last two weeks. The price of the homes being shown has taken an increase to as much as $700,000. It’s refreshing to see the homes priced above $200,000 seeing some demand. Short sales still continue to make buyers wait and wait and wait! Foreclosed properties are a great deal and are selling fast in the lower price ranges.
- Evergreen/Conifer—No information reported.
- Denver Central – Our under contracts and closings for November were 23% higher in Denver than they were in November of 2008. This could be attributed to the original tax credit deadline of November 30th. We certainly had a rush of closings at the end of November. With the holiday season we’ve seen the typical slow down for this time of year with showings & listing activity decreasing. Since the tax credit has been extended to 2010 there has been an increase in 1st time buyers asking for information on the $8000 tax credit. We’re also having several existing homeowners contact us for information on the new $6500 tax credit. We continue to see inventory shortages in the Denver market which has created multiple offer situations in the lower end market. The inventory is substantially lower than it’s highpoint in 2007. Over 50% of the home sales in the Denver metro area are under $250,000. If you’re looking to sell a home priced under $300,00, this is a great time!
- Devonshire— With the distractions and excitement of the holiday season, it’s not surprising to see a decrease in real estate activity right now. Buyers are saying that they will wait until after the holidays to look for homes and sellers are waiting to put their homes on the market. We’re anticipating a strong spring with interest rates remaining at an all time low, with an increase in listing inventory with the buyer incentives having been extended. 2010 should show that the populus is feeling more positive about the economy and thus real estate activity should show a strong surge. We’re positive about the New Year.
- Douglas County— Showings are continuing to decline especially as we get closer to the holidays. Open houses the past two weekends have been very slow. It seems that sellers are now waiting until next year to list and buyers are still looking for properties, ready to write offers. The new tax credits have helped to fuel buyers however most sellers want to wait. Our mortgage advisor is seeing an increase in buyers who are seeking approval letters. We are also seeing an increase in short sales.
- El Paso County— The housing market in Colorado Springs remains steady. We’ve seen an increase in listings, mostly due to Military transfers, short-sales & pre-foreclosure homes hitting the market. Showings are down which is typical during the Holiday Season. Sales in the Springs remain strong, especially in the lower price ranges. We’re seeing shorter days on market & multiple offers on homes under $200,000. We expect the showings & sales to increase after the first of the year.
- Larimer County— We’re currently not seeing much movement in North Colorado. It seems that buyers and sellers have something else on their minds. Most people this time of year are thinking of holiday cheer, packed shopping malls and who is going to pick up grandma from the airport. There is something else you should be considering, selling your home. Why? Well here are four good reasons you would want to list your home during the holiday season: 1) Buyers looking for homes during the holidays tend to be more serious about buying, 2) Buyers may have more time to look for a home during the holidays than during the regular work week, especially with their additional vacation time, 3) History shows that the amount of listings dramatically increase after January 1st. With more properties on the market, there is more competition and less demand for your particular home, 4) Interest rates are typically the lowest during the winter months making your home more affordable to buyers. It is a great time to buy and sell. Don’t let the market stereotypes control your goal.
- North Metro—After a fabulous month in November we’ve seen a slow down in activity in both contracts & listings. The agents are out showing properties & see a new enthusiasm because of the extension of the tax credit. Our average list price is at $190,000 at this time. Our under contract average is price is currently $250,000.
- Parker— No information reported.
- Southeast Metro— No information reported.
- West Lakewood— Our sales and listing activity are actually staying steady here at the West Lakewood office. We are however seeing many agents out for the holidays.
If you are curious about the price and value of your home feel free to give me a call and I would be happy to asses your homes value.
Happy New Year!